Bill Richardson: a clear vision on Iran

[x-posted at Daily Kos]

If the United States chose its presidents based on resumé alone, Bill Richardson would be the clear front-runner for 2008.

But Richardson, who is notably lacking in Obama's charisma, Hillary's name recognition and organization, or even Edward's boyish charm, is currently firmly ensconced in the dwindling (farewell Tom Vilsack, we hardly knew ye) second tier of potential Democratic nominees.

But regardless of his poll standings, I have no doubt that the New Mexican Governor, former UN ambassador, and Energy Secretary (see, I told you he has a great resumé) would may an excellent president.

One reason I believe that is his clear vision of America's place in the world and what needs to be done to improve that place.

In an op-ed in today's Washington Post, Richardson outlines his vision for dealing with an international crisis that, should it follow the trajectory which BushCorp™ seems to have mapped out for it, would indeed make the debacle in Iraq appear the mere comma W says it is:

The recent tentative agreement with North Korea over its nuclear program illustrates how diplomacy can work even with the most unsavory of regimes. Unfortunately, it took the Bush administration more than six years to commit to diplomacy. During that needless delay North Korea developed and tested nuclear weapons -- weapons its leaders still have not agreed to dismantle. Had we engaged the North Koreans earlier, instead of calling them "evil" and talking about "regime change," we might have prevented them from going nuclear. We could have, and should have, negotiated a better agreement, and sooner.

As the International Atomic Energy Agency just confirmed, Iran has once again defied the international community and is moving forward with its nuclear program, yet the Bush administration seems committed to repeating the mistakes it made with North Korea. Rather than directly engaging the Iranians about their nuclear program, President Bush refuses to talk, except to make threats. He has moved ships to the Persian Gulf region and claims, with scant evidence, that Iran is helping Iraqi insurgents kill Americans. This is not a strategy for peace. It is a strategy for war -- a war that Congress has not authorized. Most of our allies, and most Americans, don't believe this president, who has repeatedly cried wolf.

And while BushCorp™ continues to rely on its belief that diplomacy amounts it the issuance of threats and ultimata, Richardson proposes an approach to the issue that relies more on neurons than testosterone:

A better approach would be for the United States to engage directly with the Iranians and to lead a global diplomatic offensive to prevent them from building nuclear weapons. We need tough, direct negotiations, not just with Iran but also with our allies, especially Russia, to get them to support us in presenting Iran with credible carrots and sticks.

No nation has ever been forced to renounce nuclear weapons, but many have chosen to do so. The Iranians will not end their nuclear program because we threaten them and call them names. They will renounce nukes because we convince them that they will be safer and more prosperous if they do that than if they don't. This feat will take more than threats and insults. It will take skillful American diplomatic leadership. [Emphasis mine]

The article should be read in whole, but my point is that, whatever is lacking in candidate Richardson (and I'm not endorsing ANYONE at this point), he would none-the-less, be a vast improvement over the current administration, and is certainly worthy of consideration for the Democratic nomination.

As a commenter on the WaPo article puts it:

What a breath of fresh air. Finally, some level-headed, discerning experience talking. Exactly what this country has needed for the past six years. Not the deceit and recklessness of the dangerous boy scouts running the country who are happy to use our kids for their wars. Thanks, Governor. Such sanity shines through the clouds of war of these dark, tragic days.

Clinton/Obama dust-up: donors beware

It's not about Obama.

It's not even really about David Geffen's snarky, though some would say accurate analysis of Clinton's situation.

The key point is, and I've said this before, it's about the money. Specifically the millions of dollars the candidates will have to raise to run. And it's an especially intense subject now because Democrats are to a large extent drawing from the same pool of potential donors.

No Democrat is worried about losing David Geffen's support to, say, Sam Brownback.

And so, like all intra-familial altercations, the infighting can get particularly nasty and mean-spirited.

And in a way the latest beouhaha has almost nothing to do with the Obama campaign. The real message is aimed at potential Democratic donors. The Clinton camp has made it eminently clear that they're not about to cut donors any slack, you're either with HRC or against her.

So beyond all the sniping, the point is this, if you're a Democratic donor who gives to someone besides HRC, be prepared to be attacked.

The real question is: how will Democratic donors react to HRC's strong-arm tactics?

Power of the press

Rarely is the media's power to expose a need and pressure responsible parties to address that need more clearly evident than the Washington Post's recent investigative series examining the deplorable conditions faced by many wounded vets at Walter Reed's now infamous Building 18.

(Links to all related articles here.)

The Post's reports were widely circulated in other national media as well as by many in the blogosphere, including your CaliBlogger.

And while we've yet to see whether the declarations to remedy this deplorable situation will come to fruition, still sincere congratulations are due the Post, as well as lead reporters Anne Hull and Dana Priest who broke the story after a 4 month long investigation.

Truly, great work folks.

Why no Iraqi refugees in Iran?

Are you the sort of person who's occasionally driven crazy by nagging questions? And I'm not talking about earth shattering questions like why is there air, but things like, yeah you remember, that guy, you know, the one that was in that movie with the thing? What's his name?

That sort of question.

Me too.

So one of the things I love most about the web is the ability to get immediate answers to almost any questions one can dream up.

And even if you can't find the answer already published, thanks to blogs you can usually find someone who not only knows the answer, but is interested enough in their subject to be happy to respond to your interest.

I've said before, and I'll say again that Juan Cole's Informed Consent website is a must stop on the information superhighway for unfiltered news on the middle east.

So when I had a question about some recent coverage about the Iraqi refugee situation Professor Cole was the first person I thought of.

My email:

I have a question. I've recently read several reports on the increasingly dire Iraqi refugee situation. My question is this, why is Iran never mentioned in these stories? Are there no Iraqi refugees in Iran? Are statistics simply not available? If not (to either question) why not? Are Iraqi Arab Shi'a just not welcomed by their Persian brothers?

It just struck me as odd.

To my delight he was kind enough to respond:

Most of the refugees are from the roiled Sunni Arab areas, and Sunnis don't go to Iran. Arab Shiites prefer Syria, as well, an Arabic speaking country that is now open to them.

There were 400,000 Iraqi Shiites in Iran under Saddam, but they have mostly come back. Now the shoe is on the other foot.

cheers Juan

Thanks Prof. Cole

Dontcha just love the internets?

Lessons ignored: George Bush on George Washington

I realize that I should learn to let such things pass, but I somehow can't stop myself from taking note of W's latest effort to compare himself with one of America's greatest leaders, George Washington. From Bush's Presidents Day speech:

"On the field of battle, Washington's forces were facing a mighty empire, and the odds against them were overwhelming. The ragged Continental Army lost more battles than it won, suffered waves of desertions, and stood on the brink of disaster many times. Yet George Washington's calm hand and determination kept the cause of independence and the principles of our Declaration alive."

In other words Bush is implying that critics should back off and trust W's calm hand and determination.

Not surprisingly W fails to note the irony of the historical comparison to which he has just alluded:

On the field of battle, Washington's forces were facing a mighty empire, and the odds against them were overwhelming. The ragged Continental Army lost more battles than it won, suffered waves of desertions, and stood on the brink of disaster many times.

The British, the greatest military power of its day, lost to what amounted to (in their eyes) a ragtag bunch of farmers wielding hunting rifles, demonstrating the difficulty faced by a military power, however great, when fighting an enemy thousands of miles distant, on the enemies' own turf, where the enemy himself is indistinguishable from the general population.

No doubt King George III believed the American revolt would be over in six months as well.

Of course why I should expect a man who seems incapable of correctly interpreting his morning newspaper (or in W's case his morning PDB), why I should expect such a person to garner any lessons from history is beyond me.

And I realize that politicians the world over habitually compare themselves (favorably) with revered figures from the past.

Still, I find it irritating for George Washington's legacy to be maligned by comparison to that of the Worst. President. Ever.

GOP donor faces terrorism charges

We interrupt the 24/7 coverage of Anna Nicole Smith (who is still dead) to bring you the following news: apparently crooked businessman and US National Republican Senate Inner Circle Member for Life faces terrorism charges because of a scheme to supply night vision goggles to a terrorist training camp in Aghanistan. From CBS News:

(CBS/AP) Terrorism charges brought Friday against the administrator of a loan investment program claimed that he secretly tried to send $152,000 to the Middle East to buy equipment such as night vision goggles for a terrorist training camp in Afghanistan.

Abdul Tawala Ibn Ali Alishtari, 53, of Ardsley, N.Y., pleaded not guilty in U.S. District Court in Manhattan to an indictment accusing him of terrorism financing, material support of terrorism and other charges. The charges carried a potential penalty of 95 years in prison.

[snip]

CBS News has confirmed that Alishtari is a donor to the Republican Party, as he claims on his curriculum vitae. Alishtari gave $15,500 to the National Republican Campaign Committee between 2002 and 2004, according to Federal Election Commission records. That amount includes $13,000 in 2003, a year when he claims to have been named NRCC New York State Businessman of the Year.

Alishtari also claims to be a lifetime member of the National Republican Senate Committee's Inner Circle, which the NRCC describes as "an impressive cross-section of American society – community leaders, business executives, entrepreneurs, retirees, and sports and entertainment celebrities – all of whom hold a deep interest in our nation's prosperity and security." [Emphasis mine-CK]

Now, truly, in the money-grubbing atmosphere of today's electoral campaigns it's hardly surprising that political parties don't look too closely at who is giving them money (at least until they get indicted that is). And so it may be entirely co-incidental that someone with pro-terrorist sympathies chose to give to the GOP.

On the other hand, given that GOPers were at the time supporting BushCorp™'s efforts to divert money, troops, and attention from the GWOT to indulge his testosterone struggle with Saddam, perhaps Mr. Alishtari felt that by supporting the GOP he was helping his terrorist friends.

Certainly al Qaeda couldn't ask for a better recruiting tool than Bush's Iraqi escapade.

I suppose Mr. Alishtari, good GOPer that he is, was getting the most bang for his buck.

[Note: all implications in the above regarding Mr. Alishtari's guilt or innocence should be presumed to be proceeded by the word "alledged" - CK]

Supporting the troops: travesty at Walter Reed

Vermin, bureaucracy, pain, and a haze of brain injuries, drugs and alcohol.

It might sound like something from Hunter S. Thompson's worst ether induced nightmares, but instead is business as usual at Walter Reed, the vaunted army medical facility.

Behind the door of Army Spec. Jeremy Duncan's room, part of the wall is torn and hangs in the air, weighted down with black mold. When the wounded combat engineer stands in his shower and looks up, he can see the bathtub on the floor above through a rotted hole. The entire building, constructed between the world wars, often smells like greasy carry-out. Signs of neglect are everywhere: mouse droppings, belly-up cockroaches, stained carpets, cheap mattresses.

This is the world of Building 18, not the kind of place where Duncan expected to recover when he was evacuated to Walter Reed Army Medical Center from Iraq last February with a broken neck and a shredded left ear, nearly dead from blood loss. But the old lodge, just outside the gates of the hospital and five miles up the road from the White House, has housed hundreds of maimed soldiers recuperating from injuries suffered in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The Washington Post expose, by Dana Priest and Anne Hull, needs to be read in full to appreciate the shameful conditions faced by soldiers wounded in Bush's quagmire of the vanities so I won't quote it extensively here.

But one paragraph struck my eye:

Maj. Gen. George W. Weightman, commander at Walter Reed, said in an interview last week that a major reason outpatients stay so long, a change from the days when injured soldiers were discharged as quickly as possible, is that the Army wants to be able to hang on to as many soldiers as it can, "because this is the first time this country has fought a war for so long with an all-volunteer force since the Revolution."

And now the hospital is gearing up to receive even more wounded due to Bush's desparate escalation.

Words fail me.

Nothing to talk about?

The Bush administration continues to refuse to talk with regimes like Syria and Iran because they don't want to "reward" them for bad behavior. Until they meet our demands, in Iran's case a cessation of nuclear activity (I'm not quite clear what demands we're making of Syria) then we have nothing to say to them.

This stance is, of course, non-sensical. Talking with your enemies has a long and proud tradition of easing the myriad tensions to which this world is heir. Witness the cold war, and, most recently, the nuclear disarmament agreement with North Korea. During WWII we were allied with Josef frigging Stalin fer cryin' out loud.

And what could we talk about with Iran?

Well, how about this:

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Clashes broke out between police and an armed group following a bomb explosion in southeast Iran on Friday, the semi-official Fars news agency reported.

[snip]

Responsibility for that attack was claimed by a shadowy Sunni group, Jundallah (God's soldiers), which Iran has said is linked to Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network. Tehran has blamed Jundallah for past killings in the area bordering Pakistan. [Emphasis mine-CK]

Golly, Iran is being plagued by a Sunni group linked to al Qaeda, who, you might vaguely remember, was the group actually responsible for the 9/11 attacks?

Sounds like a case for common interest there.

And that is just one example.

The reality, however, is that despite any number of areas where the US and Iran might find common ground (the Iraqi refugee situation and Iran's aging oil infrastructure come immediately to mind) BushCorp™ is instead focused on picking a fight.

And to clear, I'm not proposing that we ignore the dangers inherent from Iran's autocratic theocracy, what I'm saying is that instead of relying exclusively on sabre-rattling, we should at least talk about things were we share common interest.

Eliminating al Qaeda strikes me as something we should talk about, even with Iran.

More positive signs for NK Nuke deal

Is the North Korean Nuclear Disarmament deal a positive step towards world peace and rational US foreign policy?

Your CaliBlogger is pleased to provide you with the best evidence that it is: the neo-cons hate it.

The White House yesterday found itself fending off a conservative revolt over the North Korea nuclear deal, even scrambling to mollify one of its own top officials who expressed sharp disagreement with a provision that could spring Pyongyang from the list of countries that sponsor terrorism, U.S. officials said yesterday.

Surely anything reviled by the folks who gamed us into the disaster in Iraq, and are so urgently trying to do the same with Iran can't be all bad.

But what I find particularly revealing is the nature of their criticism.

John R. Bolton, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, called the agreement -- in which North Korea would freeze its main nuclear facility in exchange for an initial supply of fuel oil -- "a bad deal" that violated principles that were closely held in the beginning of the Bush administration. [Emphasis mine-CK]

Of course I might argue that the agreement is likely a good deal BECAUSE it violates the same Bush admin principles which entangled us in Iraq and are propelling us into violent confrontation with Iran. Like I said, if John (the Walrus) Bolten hates it, it can't be all bad.

And the National Review, a conservative bastion, yesterday slammed the agreement as essentially the same one negotiated by President Bill Clinton in 1994 -- a charge the Bush administration rejects. [Emphasis mine-CK]

I, of course, would point out that those agreements were working reasonably well until BushCorp™ adopted its "closely held" principles of confrontation and swagger in 2001.

Current and former Bush officials said they fear that after six years they are losing control of foreign policy to more pragmatic forces. The shift, they said, has become especially apparent with the departure of Donald H. Rumsfeld, who as defense secretary was often seen as a counterweight to State.

More specifically, conservatives said, they worry that the administration's willingness to bend on North Korea does not bode well for hard-line policies toward Iran, the Palestinians or other issues. Indeed, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov yesterday called on the United States to demonstrate "the same flexibility, a sensible flexibility" toward Iran's nuclear program. [Emphasis mine-CK]

The neo-cons fear they are losing control of BushCorp™ foreign policy?

Let us pray that the assesment of their own decline is better than any of the predictions they've made about US foreign policy.

Wouldn't it be wonderful if the neo-cons were indeed in their last throes?

What would Lincoln do?

As the person who led the US through its most dangerous conflict, perhaps we should heed his insights. Andrew Sullivan cites this letter written by Abraham Lincoln on the wisdom of giving the President authority to wage preventative war:

"Allow the President to invade a neighboring nation whenever he shall deem it necessary to repel an invasion, and you allow him to do so whenever he may choose to say he deems it necessary for such purpose, and you allow him to make war at pleasure. Study to see if you can fix any limit to his power in this respect, after having given him so much as you propose. If to-day he should choose to say he thinks it necessary to invade Canada to prevent the British from invading us, how could you stop him? You may say to him, — 'I see no probability of the British invading us;' but he will say to you, 'Be silent: I see it, if you don't."

That's probably too long a paragraph for Incurious George to read, perhaps some one could give him a summary?

[h/t to Howard Kurtz]

More good news: US NOT worst for child welfare

We're just the second worst.

The U.K. and the U.S. are the worst places for children's quality of life and the Netherlands and Sweden are the best, according to a report on 21 industrialized countries by the United Nations Children's Fund.

[snip]

The U.S. ranks last in health and safety, with the highest rates of relative child poverty and teenage obesity, according to the report. Only 60 percent of U.S. children live with both parents, compared with 90 percent in Greece, the report said.

Shameful doesn't begin to express how outrageous this is.

And, by the way, if you read some news accounts, you'd never even know where the US ranked.

North Korea to nix nukes

Good international news? During the Bush administration? Wow.

And even though I fully expect any number of setbacks alongthe way I'm having trouble seeing todays news about today's nuclear disarmament agreement with Noth Korea as anything but a good thing.

BEIJING, Feb. 13 -- In a landmark international accord, North Korea promised Tuesday to close down and seal its main nuclear reactor within 60 days in return for 50,000 tons of fuel oil as a first step in abandoning all nuclear weapons and research programs.

North Korea also reaffirmed a commitment to disable the reactor in an undefined next phase of denuclearization and to discuss with the United States and other nations its plutonium fuel reserves and other nuclear programs that "would be abandoned" as part of the process. In return for taking those further steps, the accord said, North Korea would receive additional "economic, energy and humanitarian assistance up to the equivalent of 1 million tons of heavy fuel oil."

The pledges -- in an agreement reached here by North and South Korea, China, Russia, Japan and the United States -- marked North Korea's first concrete commitment to carry out an agreement in principle, dating from September 2005, to relinquish its entire nuclear program. In the view of U.S. and allied diplomats, they also amounted to a down-payment on establishment of a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula and a new set of relations among the countries of Northeast Asia.

And while a nuke-free Korea is a good thing in itself, what strikes me as more important is how this agreement was acheived: diplomacy.

North Korea is the only member of the "axis-of-evil" with whom the US has conducted actual negotiations.

North Korea is also the only member of the dread "axis" with whom war, or really any US military intervention was unlikely. In fact the US has actually REDUCED its troop strength along the de-militarized zone on the North/South Korean border.

And I suspect military action was never seriously contemplated, even by Darth Cheney. Not with our rich uncle China (the one who's loaned us all those billions of dollars) just across the border from Pyonyang.

And North Korea is the only one we've had any real success. Co-incidence?

I don't think so.

The real question is whether BushCorp™ is capable of learning from its only success in the last 6 years.

Obama makes it official

I guess the first step is admitting you have a problem.

So yes, as much as I deny it to myself, my friends, and my family I finally have to face the facts: it's February, 2007, and I'm addicted to writing about elections that won't occur for another 20 months.

I came to this realization as I started to write this post about Sen. Barack Obama's formally announcement of his candidacy when I noticed I'd already written about the 2008 elections seven times.

And that's all while denying that I was interested.

Well so much for that.

And perhaps I'm just bargaining here, but it seems to me that I have a few valid excuses for my inability to be reasonable and forswear all election discussion for at least another six months.

Now I could talk about the historic possiblities of having the nation's first black, or female president, about the fact that the veep (maybe there is a God) isn't running, making the field wide open, or the fact that Republican mis-management has made prospects for an actually progressive Democratic government better than it has been for years.

But really, after entire minutes of introspection, I've realized what is really driving my interest in 2008.

I'm sick to death of George W. Bush, and scared to death of what a further mess Shrub (© Molly Ivins) will make of the country in the next two years.

Will he continue to exacerbate the divide between rich and poor? Will he continue to obfuscate the reality of global warming, and indeed every other important scientific initiative with his unique combination of ideology, ignorance, and incompetence?

Will he engage us in a conflict with Iran that will be so disastrous as to make the current disaster in Iraq look indeed like the "comma" he claims it to be?

And so perhaps I'm engaging in a bit of magical thinking by focusing on 2008, but can you really blame me?

It really can't come too soon.

Oh, yeah.

And by the way Barack Obama officially launched his campaign for President today from the steps of the Old Capitol Building in Springfield Illinois, the site of Abraham Lincoln's famous "house divided" speech.

Seems like a nice place to start.

Marketing terms explained

As a follow up to my post on humor from areas that aren't typically funny, and a nod to my day job I present...marketing humor (not original, just something I got in my email):

Explanation Of Marketing...

The buzz word in today's business world is MARKETING.
However, people often ask for a simple explanation of
"Marketing." Well, here it is:

1. You're a woman and you see a handsome guy at a party.
You go up to him and say, "I'm fantastic in bed."
That's Direct Marketing

2. You're at a party with a bunch of friends and see a
handsome guy. One of your friends goes up to him and,
pointing at you, says, "She's fantastic in bed."
That's Advertising.

3. You see a handsome guy at a party. You go up to him
and get his telephone number. The next day you call and
say, "Hi, I'm fantastic in bed."
That's Telemarketing.

4. You see a guy at a party; you straighten your dress.
You walk up to him and pour him a drink. You say,
"May I?" and reach up to straighten his tie, brushing
your breast lightly against his arm,and then say,
"By the way, I'm fantastic in bed."
That's Public Relations.

5. You're at a party and see a handsome guy. He walks
up to you and says, "I hear you're fantastic in bed."
That's Brand Recognition.

6. You're at a party and see a handsome guy. He fancies
you, but you talk him into going home with your friend.
That's a Sales Rep.

7. Your friend can't satisfy him so he calls you.
That's Tech Support.

8. You're on your way to a party when you realize that
there could be handsome men in all these houses you're
passing, so you climb onto the roof of one situated
towards the center and shout at the top of your lungs,
"I'm fantastic in bed!"
That's Junk Mail.

And my addition:

9. You've been invited to a party where you know there'll be a handsome man, so you start a rumor that you know he'll hear about that the rest of the women attending the party have a particularly nasty infectious disease.

That's Rovian marketing.

And then we'll all get ponies

This Washington Post headline kinda says it all:

Doubts Run Deep on Reforms Crucial to Bush's Iraq Strategy: Even Plan's Authors Say Political, Economic Changes May Fail

Stop me if you've heard this before.

The Bush administration is embarking on a course of action based on unrealistic and unlikely assumptions, all the while leaving no "plan B" should the plan, for which failure is the most likely outcome, fail.

Oh yeah, that's it, the entire Iraqi debacle.

To review.

• -Non-existent WMD
• -Being greeted as liberators
• -Insurgency in its "last throes"

Not to mention all those countless "turning points".

It's truly remarkable that, despite a non-stop string of failures, the administration still maintains as its main underlying principle an unwavering certainty of its beliefs.

We don't have an administration, we have an administration fantasy league peopled by folks who've bought their way into government but think they're ready for the World Series.

But that's business as usual at BushCorp™.

Here's a thought I found particularly troubling, see if you can spot the problem (from the same story):

The foundation of the strategy is not new -- U.S. policy since the March 2003 invasion has been to use American military might, money and know-how to foster a peaceful Iraq with a unified government and a solid economy.

(snip)

As they put the plan together, [US] officials held heated internal debates over whether Maliki was the right man to head such an effort. Some argued in favor of engineering a new Iraqi government under Maliki's Shiite coalition partner, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, head of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), and Hakim's political stalking horse, Iraqi Vice President Adel Abdul Mahdi. [Emphasis mine-CK]

Catch that?

The main goal is to set up a credible unified government.

To accomplish that goal the US in considering whether to topple the current democratically elected government.

And even if we don't topple the current government it will only be because Maliki has caved to US interests.

In other words the US is planning on undermining the Iraqi government in order to legitimize it in the eyes of the Iraqi people.

Nope, no problem there.

And after that does everyone get a pony?

Worst. President. Ever.

And in today's edition of Worst. President. Ever. we give you...global warming.

On Wednesday we get confirmation of something we've suspected for a long time, that BushCorp™ manipulates scientific data (by means of political oversight of science organizations) in order to further its nefarious pro-corporate agenda.

More than 120 scientists across seven federal agencies say they have been pressured to remove references to "climate change" and "global warming" from a range of documents, including press releases and communications with Congress. Roughly the same number say appointees altered the meaning of scientific findings on climate contained in communications related to their research.

These findings, part of a new report compiled by two watchdog groups, shed new light on complaints by a scattering of scientists over the past year who have publicly complained that Bush administration appointees have tried to mute or muzzle what researchers have to say about global warming.

And today we get a harrowing view of the potential effects of the global warming BushCorp™ has spent so much effort denying:

By 2100, retired snowbirds will be joined by "sun birds" – who flee north to escape oppressively hot, humid summers not just in Miami, but Milwaukee as well. In the US West, deep mountain snows – currently a key natural reservoir for fresh water – will virtually vanish. And while the growing season will expand by about a month, urban gardeners will spend more time indoors as higher temperatures help boost smog at ground level.

Welcome to a world where the climate is, on average, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than today.

That projection – more specific than any previous one – is just one element expected to emerge this week as some 500 scientists from around the world gather to put the finishing touches on a major report on the Earth's climate and what the future may hold for it as humans continue to pump heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

It's common wisdom that Bush's Iraqi nightmare will be his lingering historical legacy.

But it's possible that his worse crime won't be the deaths of 100s of thousands of humans (yes, I include Iraqi deaths as worth consideration), but will instead be the willful ignorance and greed that may ultimately lead to the deaths of millions.

And yes, I know, Incurious George has plenty of company in ignorance and denial, but given the magnitude of the potential devastation I can not believe he will be spared.

And the thought occurs to me that perhaps the title of Worst. President. Ever. is insufficient to express W's palce in history.

Compare him, for example, to another famed tyrant.

But while Nero fiddled while Rome burned, Shrub* twiddles his fingers while the world burns.

*RIP Molly Ivins, we sorely miss you.

Linguistic humor alert

From NewMexiKen:

A linguistics professor was lecturing to his class one day. “In English,” he said, “A double negative forms a positive. In some languages, though, such as Russian, a double negative is still a negative. However, there is no language wherein a double positive can form a negative.”

A voice from the back of the room piped up, “Yeah, right.”

[H/t to Shakespeare's Sister]

Democracy v. Empire

Historian Chalmers Johnson is guest-blogging over at TPM Cafe to talk about his new book with the provocative title Nemesis: The Last Days of the American Republic.

His thesis is essentially that America's imperial ambitions, like those of so many empires before us, will ultimately doom America to either dictatorship or bankruptcy.

And while I don't entirely share his rather gloomy view (though he makes a compelling argument for it, and is clearly much, much smarter than your humble CaliBlogger), I do like how he formulates the current American dilemma:

As a form of government, imperialism does not seek or require the consent of the governed. It is a pure form of tyranny. The American attempt to combine domestic democracy with such tyrannical control over foreigners is hopelessly contradictory and hypocritical. A country can be democratic or it can be imperialistic, but it cannot be both.

His post should, of course, absolutely be read in full to appreciate the depth of his arguments, but the above point well illustrates something I've always felt regarding our current entanglement in Iraq.

That lacking any overwhelming provocation so necessary to muster a democratic country's will to war, we would never be willing to make the very real national sacrifices necessary to winning it.

Many armchair generals on the right have (rightly) criticized the war effort as the result of Rumsfelds determination to do this war on the cheap. What they fail to realize is that Rumsfeld had no other choice.

As we now know to a certainty, Saddam Hussein never posed a level of threat to this country that would unify it in the manner that, say, Pearl Harbor did in WWII. And such unity is a prerequisite for war in a democratic republic.

Sure it's easy to gain support from armchair chickenhawks when their biggest sacrifice is to pop for a frigging yellow ribbon bumper sticker to slap on their SUVs.

But clearly there was never enough support for this invasion to get people to pay more for gas, or even put off a tax cut.

And a draft? Get serious.

So, devoting the level of resources required to both eliminate Hussein and pacify the population of Iraq not only didn't happen, but could NEVER have happened.

And this case in point shows why I'm more optimistic than professor Johnson.

That while the US remains a democracy, however tenuously under the current regime, the major depredations required of aspiring empire-builders (read neo-cons) will prove impossible.

Such thought though should not be cause for complacency. It should instead emphasize the urgency of protecting our democratic institutions from would-be Caesars.

For failure to do so may well doom an American Empire to a fate like those of all the empires before us.

Pro-hobbit faction fires back

And so the raging controversy of our time continues:

The tiny woman dubbed the Hobbit who lived 18,000 years ago on a remote Indonesian island deserves to be deemed a new human species and not a deformed modern human, as skeptics assert, researchers said on Monday.

In the latest salvo in a heated scientific shootout, an international team led by Florida State University anthropologist Dean Falk compared the Hobbit's skull to those of nine people with microcephaly, a rare condition in which the head is abnormally small due to improper brain development.

They concluded that the 3-foot-tall (1-meter) adult woman had a highly evolved brain, unlike that of a microcephalic person, confirming that she belongs to the proposed extinct species Homo floresiensis, closely related to modern Homo sapiens.

Now I suppose my main interest in this story was sparked because the researchers rather cleverly dubbed their discovery as a hobbit, a word designed to catch the eye of Tolkien fans the world over.

And while Homo floresiensis likely didn't have hairy feet (or mithril shirts for that matter), still the romantic in me would feel better about this world knowing that once upon a time tiny people once roamed a world of wonderful and odd creatures.

It's a dirty job, but somebody's got to do it

President Bush has famously said that he expects that the next president will still have the Iraq war to deal with, and at least one prospective next president is not at all pleased.

Hillary Rodham Clinton said Sunday that President Bush has made a mess of Iraq and it is his responsibility to "extricate" the United States from the situation before he leaves office.

It would be "the height of irresponsibility" to pass the war along to the next commander in chief, she said.

"This was his decision to go to war with an ill-conceived plan and an incompetently executed strategy," the Democratic senator from New York said her in initial presidential campaign swing through Iowa.

"We expect him to extricate our country from this before he leaves office" in January 2009, the former first lady said.

And while I certainly agree that Bush SHOULD clean up his own mess, given his history in life, in business, and in the oval office to date, that doesn't seem at all likely.

But really what can we expect? The next Democratic administration is going to have to spend significant resources cleaning up the messes the Republicans have made all over the world, as well as here at home.

The other option would be another Republican administration that will only make things worse.

So Democrats, buck up. It's a dirty job, but somebody's go to do it.

Worser and worser

After earlier denials, the Pentagon has now confirmed that 4 of 5 American soldiers first reported killed on January 20 of this year had been kidnapped:

In perhaps the boldest and most sophisticated attack in four years of warfare, gunmen speaking English, wearing U.S. military uniforms and carrying American weapons abducted four U.S. soldiers last week at the provincial headquarters in the Shiite holy city of Karbala and then shot them to death.

The U.S. military confirmed a report earlier Friday by the Associated Press that three of the soldiers were dead and one was mortally wounded with a gunshot to the head when they were found in a neighboring province, about 25 miles from the compound where they were captured. A fifth soldier was killed in the initial attack on the compound. [Emphasis mine-CK]

I can't tell from reports whether this was an intended kidnap-for-profit gone awry, or whether the kidnappers were planning to use the soldier hostages for more politcal ends, but it occurs to me regardless that by increasing troop levels we're also providing more targets for such acts.

And it's apparently not bad enough that US soldiers on the ground can't determine friend from foe because thay all come from the same population, now they can't tell friend from foe because they're wearing US uniforms and carrying American weapons.

But still, according to BushCorp™, those opposing his mis-guided escalation are the ones aiding and abetting "the enemy".

Bush Derangement Syndrome explained

The redoubtable Lance Mannion offers some parables explaining what is referred to sneeringly by the wingnutosphere as Bush Derangement Syndrome (BDS), the idea that most opposition to BushCorp is rooted in an almost pathological (and to the right) irrational hatred for George W. Bush:

Say you know a guy who likes to kick his dog.

Every morning you see him out walking his dog and whenever the dog stops to sniff around the guy gives the poor mutt a swift kick in the ribs.

You tell your neighbors about him. One of the neighbors says, "Boy, you really don't like this guy, do you?"

"No, I don't," you say, "Who likes someone who's mean to his dog?"

Little time later you hear this guy who kicks his dog wants to open a kennel in the neighborhood. Board pets, groom them. Where he wants to put the kennel is zoned residential so he's asking the town board for a variance. You go to the town board meeting and stand up and say you don't think he should get the variance. It'd ruin the neighborhood, you say. Besides that, you add, this guy abuses animals.

Your neighbor, the one who observed how much you dislike the guy for kicking his dog, stands up and tells the town board not to pay any attention to what you say. Because you just dislike the guy.

The left opposes Bush because he's a dog-kicker, so to speak.

And, as Lance points out, as annoying as it is when the wingnutosphere blithely attributes the left's dislike of W to BDS, it's especially irresponsible when the MSM picks up on the meme as did Ruth Marcus in her recent WaPo column.

But more Lance:

I would just like to point out, as if it hasn't been pointed out a thousand times and won't need to be pointed out a thousand more, that the reason Liberals don't like George W. Bush's plans is that they are bad plans that he makes worse by managing them incompetently and corruptly---in fact, incompetence and corruption are usually built into them as selling points to Republicans.

And the reason we don't like him is that he has a long history of pushing bad plans that he makes worse by managing them incompetently and corruptly.

We don't like people who kick dogs.

We don't like corporate executives who abuse employees and hurt their own companies.

We don't like dishonest electricians who do substandard work.

We don't like incompetence and corruption.

And we don't like Presidents who start unnecessary wars and lose them, who let cities drown, who bankrupt the Treasury and give away the store to their rich pals and cronies, who write legislation specifically designed to undermine existing government services, make things worse for the poor and the middle class, and give away the store to their rich pals and cronies.

Too bad for us.

We're irrational on the subject.

This of course is anathema to members of the DC press elite like Marcus (her co-worker David Broder is notorious for this) because it violates their only article of faith: that the people they attend cocktail parties with should all just get along.

Regardless of who kicks dogs.

A silent surge

Non-binding resolutions condemning Bush's escalation of the war in Iraq would be nice if the US had a parliamentary government and could vote no confidence and hold presidential elections within the month.

But alas this happy revery is not to be.

And besides, unheralded in the press, the escalation surge is already a fait accompli.

William Arkin:

I've already written about the curious silence of most of the mainstream media when the first troopers of the 82nd Airborne Division arrived by helicopter from Kuwait more than 10 days ago landing at the gigantic American base at Taji, north of the capital, and then settling in at Forward Operating Bases Loyalty and Rustumiyah on the periphery of Sadr city, the Shi'a slums in northeast Baghdad.

Now SS writes me that the 3rd Battalion, 6th Marines out of Camp Lejeune, North Carolina left for Iraq last Thursday. They arrived in Habbaniyah west of Baghdad for duty in Al Anbar province. Word is they may be moving elsewhere before the end of the month.

SS, who has a nephew in the battalion, comments that there was no real news coverage of either the unit's departure from North Carolina or their arrival in Iraq. There was only one tiny item in the Charlotte Observer and the local ABC affiliate aired a report on Monday.

The Defense Department has divulged that troops of the 1st Battalion, 6th Marine Regiment and the 3rd Battalion, 4th Marine Regiment are being extended in Anbar province for 60 to 90 days as part of the surge. The 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit, an additional augmented battalion with air support, is also being extended in Anbar for 45 days.

And ever so quietly, the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit also left Lejeune in early January aboard ships to go to Iraq as part of the surge -- at least according to reports by the Associated Press and picked up hardly anywhere in the big media.

And so while the media focus on handicapping the 2008 horserace and dissecting the president's disingenuous State of the Union speech, more souls are being fed into the Iraqi meat-grinder.

Your CaliBlogger wonders whether the Washington press corp is any longer capable of reporting on anything that isn't accompanied by a national news conference.

Or a YouTube video.

Will Al run?

And there's another reason I haven't commented too much on 2008, the guy I really want to run hasn't announced and may not wish to run counter a Clinton juggernaut: Al Gore.

From Rolling Stone:

If the Democrats were going to sit down and construct the perfect candidate for 2008, they'd be hard-pressed to improve on Gore. Unlike Hillary Clinton, he has no controversial vote on Iraq to defend. Unlike Barack Obama and John Edwards, he has extensive experience in both the Senate and the White House. He has put aside his wooden, policy-wonk demeanor to emerge as the Bush administration's most eloquent critic. And thanks to An Inconvenient Truth, Gore is not only the most impassioned leader on the most urgent crisis facing the planet, he's also a Hollywood celebrity, the star of the third-highest-grossing documentary of all time.

Of course this may all be wishful thinking, but I don't disagree with the article's main premise: if Obama, Edwards, or someone else manages to put a dent in the Hillary machine, Gore is well positioned to step in as a unity candidate, and raise buckets of netroots money virtually overnight.

I know who I'd be making out a check to.

Statesmanship

I haven't commented extensively on the 2008 presidential race and don't plan to for a while, but I did want to take note of John Kerry's announcement that he won't be running again.

Thank you Mr. Kerry.

State of the Union

I didn't get to watch the entire address, and if you chose to miss it entirely who can blame you?

But I did get a chance to see a few minutes and read the prepared transcript, but it seems to me a commenter from the WaPo's post-speech discussion best summed it up:

All week we were told the president was going to do this SOTU address differently, that it would be an acknowledgment of his tough political situation and not a laundry list of legislative initiatives. How exactly was this a different State of the Union? I am reminded of your comment last week about the President's seeming lack of a relationship with reality--this speech could have happened in any year of his presidency.

How was it different?

Not in content particularly. The difference this year is in the eyes and ears of the public who have, at long last, figured out what some of us new long ago, that whatever the words that come out of his mouth, they will as likely as not have little impact on his actions.

He may not be lying, but then again he may well be.

All in all I enjoyed the Democratic response from Jim Webb a good deal more than the president's: no laundry list, actual logic used, plus it was short.

And what ever happened to last year's manimal threat?

[UPDATE: For cogent analysis plus an extensive look at blogosphere reaction I highly recommend Joe Gandelman's post over at The Moderate Voice.]

New Hampshire trip spurs presidential rumors

2008 presidential field feeling a bit crowded to you?

Me to.

With God at our side

A quote from film-maker Alexandra Pelosi (Nancy's youngest) regarding her upcoming HBO documentary about the American evangelical community sums up succinctly what I, and many I guess, find so scary about these folks.

They're so sure they've got all the answers, they've stopped asking the questions.

And I'm not sure what's scarier, that such assuredness serves as a defense against unacknowledged inner turmoil and doubt (the Ted Haggard syndrome) or is an accurate representation of people's inner selves.

But it does say a lot about the Bush presidency.

Hillary or Obama (or somebody else)? Follow the money

Sure, I know it's January 2007, but now that Obama's formed an exploratory committee, and Hillary's anounced for president, the race is on.

And while a national poll out today shows Hillary with a substantial lead for the Democratic nomination, such polling is not really the best indicator of where the race stands.

For one thing national polling has little to do with the state nominating process, where things like John Edward's lead in the Iowa straw poll is every bit as important.

I also strongly suspect that Hillary's national poll rankings has much to with simple name recognition, especially given the way the question was asked in this particular poll:

24. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) If the 2008 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were: (Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, John Kerry, Al Gore, Wesley Clark, Tom Vilsack, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, or Mike Gravel), for whom would you vote?

Given that grab bag list who would you choose?

The only three names with real national recognition on that list are Clinton, Kerry, and Gore. Kerry's a loser, as is (according to the Supreme Court) Gore, and Democrats are notoriously unforgiving of such. You might think Edwards would do better, but not only was he a failed candidate, he was a failed veep candidate and if few successful veeps really register with the public consciousness, how much more (less?) so does a failed one?

And while Obama might be the darling (or satan reincarnated of you're a winger) of the blogosphere and the elite media, he's had virtually no exposure as a national figure.

So if polls are virtually worthless, where does a politcal junkie go to figure out what's really going on?

Well, this being America, shouldn't the answer be obvious?

You follow the money.

That being the case you should keep an eye out for stories like this by Greg Sargent at TPM Cafe:

So I just got off the phone with a top Democratic donor, and he had some interesting things to say about the ways in which Barack Obama -- who obviously has far less of an established financial network than Hillary Clinton does -- is seeking to win over big money donors who might otherwise feel compelled to go with the former First Lady.

The Obama camp has a "light touch," which contrasts with the Clinton camp's somewhat more aggressive approach, this donor says.

According to this donor, Obama's fundraisers have been calling up established contributors and saying something along the lines of, "are you open to meeting with Obama?" or "Are you open to the idea of an Obama candidacy?"

"His people are being very respectful, very low key," this donor tells me. "The Hillary camp's message is, `I'm on my way to winning the nomination, line up with me.' Obama's is, `Hey, look, I'm the future, line up with me.' Obama's is more like, `Hey, we want you to be involved, not just to be an ATM machine.'"

To the winner of the donor wars may likely go the spoils.

And while the blogsphere is doing much to tweak the fundraising focus away from the usual corporate donors, still the money competition is a strong indicator of who is best positioned to compete, especially at this early stage of the game.

Though wouldn't it be nice if our political choices weren't quite so tightly bound with the ability to schmooze corporate donors?

Goodbye, Art Buchwald

"...it sounded like the most painless way to go, and you don't have to take a lot of stuff with you."

His final column is here.

A simple, wonderful idea

Incredible, a public servant, a senator no less, who actually seems to think that the people really are his bosses and feels obliged to let them know what he's up to.

From kencamp at Western Democrat (a great site for Dems to keep an eye on for news about the increasingly important mountain states):

In what has to be a first, Senator Jon Tester (D-Montana) has posted his daily schedule online.

Now if we could get presidential candidates to do the same I suspect we'd learn more about where they really stand than from all other sources combined.

Time is a precious commodity. I imagine a look at who gets face time and how much would be quite revealing indeed.

[x-posted at Daily Kos]

Worst person in the world

Frequent visitor to Keith Olbermann's Worst Person in the World list, Bill O’Reilly, has surely topped himself this time, suggesting that teen (he was 11 when he was 1st abducted) kidnap victim Shawn Hornbeck must have enjoyed his captivity.

From The Angry Independent (h/t to Pete Abel):

Bill O’Reilly stated on his program that Shawn’s “experience in captivity was fun"….and that "he liked it”. According to O’Reilly, Shawn Hornbeck enjoyed being victimized by his captor…. A man who will go down in history as one of the worst child predators of all time.

O'Reilly was asserting that since Hornbeck did not try to get away.... he must have liked it.

Please contact Fox and ask them to make the bad man go away.

speakout@foxnews.com

Oreilly@foxnews.com

1-888-369-4762

Crooks and Liars has the video.

The ethics of withdrawal

A recent post by Andrew Sullivan got me thinking about the US' and its individual citizens' ethical responsibilities in Iraq. This I believe, is something that even those of us who opposed the invasion from the beginning need to consider.

It is not enough, for me at least, to say that I was against the invasion in the first place and therefore I wash my hands of the whole thing. What the US is doing in Iraq right now is none the less being done in my name, if not with my blessing.

But first, Andrew's post:

"I would not leave the region. I would not even threaten to leave the region. The idea that by threatening to leave the region will cause the political players to become sufficiently frightened that they will get their act together politically—I don’t necessarily believe that. I would stay in the region because we cannot afford this to become a regional conflict, but we might need to back away from the center of the conflict and let that fire burn, while keeping our troops in the north and perhaps on the southern border. And there is much that we can do, to keep both Iran and their Sunni neighbors from coming in massively to augment that conflict between the Shi‘a and the Sunnis. To let the fire burn in the center—this is an Arab conflict; it’s not Kurdish conflict; it’s an Arab-Sunni-Shi‘a conflict—and let conflict burn itself out," - General Charles G. Boyd, National Interest.

That's pretty much where I've come out on this. Get to Kurdistan and the borders and let them have their civil war. We can even exploit it for our own purposes, if we get smart enough.

My initial reaction was that, yeah, I basically agree with this stance myself, let's keep an eye on the neighbors and the borders and let the Sunni and Shia battle it out themselves, then deal with the victors. We're not helping as is and 21,500 additional American soldiers doesn't strike me as any more likely to improve the situation.

Yet I find myself unhappy with this position.

Sure the Sunni and Shia have been going at it to greater and lesser degrees for hundreds of years. But that conflict in Iraq had been fairly quiescent under Saddam's regime for decades. And while I certainly don't approve the tacts Saddam used, still it can hardly be argued that the US invasion and following instability did not set the conditions triggering the current round of sectarian violence.

That being the case, what then, should a non-ethically challenged American stand for?

[I plan on adding further thoughts on this question to this post, but I wanted to pose this question generally, on the off chance that someone reading this might have some suggestions.-CK]

Maybe the third time will be the charm

Our allies in Iraq eff up another execution. Via Digby:

Iraq hanged two aides to Saddam Hussein before dawn on Monday but government efforts to avoid a repeat of uproar over the ousted leader's rowdy execution were thwarted when his half-brother's head was severed by the noose (?!).

Many of the government's Shi'ite Muslim supporters rejoiced at the death of Barzan Ibrahim al-Tikriti, Saddam's once feared intelligence chief who was accused of sending people to death in a meat grinder. But voices in Iraq's Sunni Arab minority saw the decapitation as a deliberate sectarian act of revenge. [Emphasis and incrdulity mine-CK]

Maybe they should just go back to having people drawn and quartered.

Confessions of an office wife

Nora Ephron channels Condi:

Then I got back to the office afterwards, and there were all these messages from the White House. I was sure they were calling to tell me how much the P. loved my testimony. But it turned out he hadn't seen any of it - he'd spent the entire day on the treadmill watching the World Series of Poker on the Tivo.

Carter Book Controversy Rages

Apparently Jimmy Carter's new book about the Palestinian-Israel (conflict, subjugation, fiasco?) is still causing quite a brouhaha in some quarters.

I confess that I haven't yet read the book, Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid, but it seems to me that the man who hammered together the Camp David Accords might have a valuable insight or two into the region's ongoing quagmire.

Until such a time as I get to read the book, and in light of the ongoing controversy(?), I'll defer to the judgment of my betters. Wolcott:

Anyone can link to anything on the web, and anyone who thinks that Jimmy Carter shares sympathies with White Supremacist groups is a liar, a fool, or a tool.

Let me see if I understand this irony: To counter Carter's claim that the Israeli lobby stifles debate in this country, the Anti-Defamation League is going to stifle debate and slime the former president with guilty (sic) by association to prove how wrong he is. [Emphasis mine-CK]

What's lower than a lawyer? A BushCorp™ lawyer.

Cully Simpson, deputy assistant secretary of defense (aka BushCorp™'s detainee overseer at Gitmo, transcription courtesy Washington Post):

"Actually you know I think the news story that you're really going to start seeing in the next couple of weeks is this: As a result of a FOIA [Freedom of Information Act] request through a major news organization, somebody asked, 'Who are the lawyers around this country representing detainees down there,' and you know what, it's shocking,"

"I think, quite honestly, when corporate CEOs see that those firms are representing the very terrorists who hit their bottom line back in 2001, those CEOs are going to make those law firms choose between representing terrorists or representing reputable firms, and I think that is going to have major play in the next few weeks. And we want to watch that play out." [Emphasis mine-CK]

Typical tactic from the Bush crime family: Nice little lawfirm ya got there. It'd be a shame if anything happened to it.

Imagine, American lawfirms upholding American legal principals by defending people who have NOT BEEN CONVICTED OF ANYTHING.

Shocking indeed.

In defense of Condie

Your Secretary of State speaking before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, as quoted in the Washington Post:

"It's bad policy to speculate on what you'll do if a plan fails when you're trying to make a plan work."

I found the quote thanks to the fine folks at TPM's Election Central, where Condie, as you might imagine, is taking quite a beating in the comments section.

But in her defense she's quite correct, speculation on the possibility of failure is probably not best done while trying to implement a plan.

It should have been done before the plan was implemented in the first place.

Of course that hasn't happened either.

Congressional response

While I was sipping my coffee this morning and doing my normal survey of online news, blogs and such, Mrs. CaliBlogger was watching C-SPAN.

I have a hard time sitting through interminable, repetitive speechifying (some of these folks could really use some public speaking lessons), but Mrs. C is far more patient than I (but then she'd need to be wouldn't she?).

What struck me, as speaker after speaker condemned Bush's escalation surge, was how many of those speakers had an R before their names.

Bush may not read polls (yeah right), but Republican congressmen surely do.

Bush's speech

The expected:

• -No real change in strategy, not really even a shift in tactics, just a few more bodies. I mean seriously is this news, that instead of just securing trouble areas we're going to really, really secure them?
• -He's still referring to 9/11, jeez!
• -He'd really prefer to start new wars with Syria and Iran.
• -So, he'll give the al-Maliki government until November to get they're act together, then he'll need another 18 months to get his act together. After which he'll just have to admit failure and leave office I suppose. Hey wait a minute...!

The unexpected:

• -No swagger.
• -Hardly any Democrat bashing.

Joe Gandelman has a nice survey of blog reaction here. But as I commented at Joe's site:

Funny, it seems to me one of the most cogent comments on Bush’s change in “strategy” (it’s really a shift in emphasis in tactics, but why quibble over the president’s abuse of english at this late date?) comes from someone not even commenting on the speech. Juan Cole citing a SacBee story:

The Americans keep putting their eggs in the basket of “standing up” the Iraqi army. Nancy Yousself reports on how difficult that is, given sectarian divisions. The problem with using armies to settle civil conflicts is that the army inevitably becomes infected by the same sectarian or ethnic passions that inflame the general population, so then it cannot be the solution. [Emphasis mine-CK]

In effect, standing up further Iraqi regiments only better arms and trains future, or current for that matter, militia members.

Nope, all we're doing is bringing the Cheney Doctrine to its logical(?) conclusion: we can't leave until we "win", and since we can't win, we can't leave.

Please believe me when I express my sincerest hope that I am dead wrong about all of this.

Can't wait for 6 pm?

Exerpts from tonight's presidential address on Iraq available at TPM Cafe.

Strategy or tactics?

When watching to president Bush's speech tonight outlining his plans for Iraq (about which there's been an abundance of informed speculation already) one thing to listen for is whether he continues to confuse two distinct but related ideas, that of strategy

strat·e·gy (străt'ə-jē) pronunciation
n., pl. -gies.

1.
a. The science and art of using all the forces of a nation to execute approved plans as effectively as possible during peace or war.
b. The science and art of military command as applied to the overall planning and conduct of large-scale combat operations.

and that of tactics.

tac·tics (tăk'tĭks) pronunciation
n.

1.
a. (used with a sing. verb) The military science that deals with securing objectives set by strategy, especially the technique of deploying and directing troops, ships, and aircraft in effective maneuvers against an enemy: Tactics is a required course at all military academies. [Emphasis mine-CK]

The strategy in question, I suspect, will remain unchanged: to stay in Iraq until "victory" somehow pops out of the ground, the Cheney doctrine. Froomkin:

"In Cheney's view, withdrawal from Iraq would first and foremost make the United States look weak. And that, in turn, would have cataclysmic domino-style effects across the globe: Afghanistan could fall, and so could Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. The Iranians could get nukes. And the United States itself would become dramatically more vulnerable to attack, not to mention lose its ability to shape a new century favorable to American principles and interests.

"Cheney really loathes weakness. And like his fellow neoconservatives, he is consumed with the conviction that an all-powerful United States is both imperative to American security and the best thing for the world. Moral leadership, multilateralism, containment, human rights -- those are all less crucial than maintaining unquestioned power, at the point of a gun if necessary. . . .

"The problem with Cheney's philosophy, of course, is overreach. In Iraq, as in Vietnam before it, the United States may have started something we can't finish."

The corollary, of course, is that we can never leave short of achieving our objectives, even when, and this is the problem in Iraq, those objectives are beyond our reach regardless of what we do. And even when, as in Iraq, our presence actually makes the achievement of those goals impossible.

So, unless all speculation is wrong, very wrong, all that Bush will put forth tonight will amount to a shift in tactics in support of a strategy which the majority of Americans, his own generals, and everyone outside a small coterie of neoconservative think tanks, believes is doomed already.

California Universal Healthcare

I've been tied up with work and family, and so haven't had an opportunity to review the governor's proposed healthcare plan.

And while I'd be amazed if I end up supporting the totality of his proposal, the important thing, as others have noted, is that the recognition of the need for SOME sort of universal healthcare is becoming much more widespread.

And that's a very good thing.

Bush's escalation surge speech: A viewer's guide

Golly, you're thinking, the president has been hinting at having a new* plan for Iraq ever since Democrats kicked his party's collective butts in the last election. And now we're finally going to be made privy to Dear Leader's no doubt decisive decisions on what to do with the mess in Mess-o-potamia (© The Daily Show).

So in anticipation of this highly touted event, Arianna has posted a helpful viewing guide, just to let you know what to look out for.

When it comes to the White House's latest "new approach" to Iraq, we are definitely entering "the lunatics have taken over the asylum" territory.

The judgment behind it -- looking at the advice of military experts, and the unambiguous results of the November election, and deciding the proper response is to escalate our involvement in Iraq -- is straight out of One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest.

Psychiatric literature defines delusional thinking as "false or irrational beliefs maintained despite clear evidence to the contrary."

Sound like any commander-in-chief you know?

Read it here.

*"New" meaning: stay the course with a few more troops and different sounding names for things.

Let's put the execute back into executions.

Yet another reason for HuffingtonPost to exist.

Elayne Boosler.

Starting last month the veteran comic (comedian, comedienne?) joined Arianna's motley band of celeb posters.

I've always enjoyed her comedy, and like some (Steve Martin) and unlike others (Harry Shearer, Dennis Miller) her wry, unblinking look at the weirdness that infects all current events has not been lost in the translation from stage to page.

For example her 1/5/07 post takes a look at the brouhaha surrounding Saddam's lynching execution.

Sure

Saddam Hussein, [was a] mass(ive) murderer, dictator, tyrant, Stalin worshiper, torturer, contortionist by proxy, mass grave filler, public beheadings Master of Ceremonies, (the Kurds found him a gas), fingernail-extracting, eye-gouging, genital-shocking, bucket-drowning, multi-tasker...

But, and I think we can all agree here, that is no excuse for taunting. Taunting is just plain rude. And how did they taunt him? They chanted the name of a different leader. I mean, talk about kicking a guy when he's down. I wasn't around for the hanging of Wilhelm Frick after Nuremberg, but I'd like to think I wouldn't have said anything.

Now before you choke on your Cheerios, be clear, Elayne isn't defending the Sadrist lynch mob. Her point:

Come on people, let's make up our minds about capital punishment. I'm against it, morally and ethically, unless someone kills someone I know and love, then I'm for it.

If we're against it, then let's not do it. But if we're going to do it, then let's do it!!!! Why make it as pleasant, painless and considerate as possible? Let's GO for "deterrent". It won't be "cruel and unusual" if it becomes usual. No painkillers, slow injections, easy slipping into the twilight, with doctors and priests and bed and blanket. So we don't lose ourselves, let's get the best in the business to do the job for us; let the already convicted murderers do it. They need the work, and a chance to think outside the box. [Emphasis mine-CK]

Which I believe is why executions, like wars, and torture sessions for that matter, should be televised, and if I could arrange it somehow, mandatory viewing.

Let's put the execute back into executions.

It's easy enough to let our government carry out this sort of grisly business behind closed doors. Out of sight, out of mind.

But for all those who give tacit support to war, to executions capital punshiment, to torture, I believe being forced to watch exactly what's being done in our names might have a most salutory effect.

Calling in the E-team

If you've recovered from New Years celebrations, you may have noticed the recent spate of hirings and firings by the Bush administration.

The invaluable Dan Froomkin has a theory:

I see a possible theme: A purge of the unbelievers.

Harriet Miers, a longtime companion of the president but never a true believer in Vice President Cheney's views of a nearly unrestrained executive branch, is out as White House counsel -- likely to be replaced by someone in the more ferocious model of Cheney chief of staff David S. Addington.

Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalizad, considered by Cheney to be too soft on the Sunnis, is kicked upstairs to the United Nations, to be replaced by Ryan Crocker, who presumably does not share his squeamishness.

John Negroponte, not alarmist enough about the Iranian nuclear threat in his role as Director of National Intelligence, is shifted over to the State Department, the Bush administration's safehouse for the insufficiently neocon. Cheney, who likes to pick his own intelligence, thank you, personally intervenes to get his old friend Mike McConnell to take Negroponte's job.

And George Casey and John Abizaid -- the generals who so loyally served as cheerleaders for the White House's "stay the course" approach during the mid-term election campaigns -- are jettisoned for having shown a little backbone in their opposition to Cheney and Bush's politically-motivated insistence on throwing more troops into the Iraqi conflagration.

Call it the E (for escalation) team.

And I suppose it makes sense of a sort.

As is becoming increasingly apparent, BushCorp has finally realized that Iraq isn't going to show the sort of progress that anyone could call winning, and has so decided on its own exit strategy: treading water until a new administration can come in and clean up its mess.

So now it's bringing in a team of ideologues so divorced from reality that they will bull through the carnage to come no matter what.

Greetings fellow pork bellies!

I suppose I could write a point by point rebuttal to George Will's latest screed against the New Deal travesty known as, gasp, the minimum wage, which, apparently ranks up there with fluoridation or what have you as an offence to the American Way of Life.

Now one might wonder why a minimum wage, which only guarantees that the poor may become slightly less poor,would matter to a wealthy member of DC's pampered punditocracy.

But you'd only have to wait until the final paragraph of the story which contains this gem:

Labor is a commodity; governments make messes when they decree commodities' prices.

Savor that thought. Labor is a commodity.

Like frozen orange juice.

Like pork bellies.

Your labor, my labor, the work you do out of love or neccesity is a commodity, nothing more.

It should therefore be as fungible as a side of beef. And as subject to the sometimes rather wayward whims of Adam Smith's invisible hand.

Unfortunately for Will, and you really would think a free market devotee would get this right, the main characteristic of a commodity is that its value is relatively independent of its source (e.g. a pork belly from Iowa is essentially valued the same as a pork belly from Alabama).

But labor has value well beyond markets, as anyone who has been without work can tell you.

And regardless, it's insulting to refer to people's work as if were merely a bushel of corn.

But then that is exactly how people like Will want us to see ourselves, just cogs in the corporate machine, sides of beef, pork bellies to be traded by the wealthy for their own benefit.

So when you watch Republicans continue to reward great wealth, while they simultaneously denigrate the value of actual work, you now know why.

Strange though, that you and I are pork bellies, but they're the pigs at the trough.

UPDATE: And it's nice to know so emminent a personage as Washington Monthly's Kevin Drumm agrees:

This, in a nutshell, is the core problem with conservative economics: it views workers as commodities. Naturally it follows from this that we should be free to treat workers like commodities, rather than as human beings. (See here for a recent example.)

Most conservatives are careful not to state this belief quite so baldly, but Will must have slipped up this morning. But don't blame him. He's just saying out loud what all the rest of them usually say only under their breaths.

Exactly.

Hour 1 for Democrats

I remember when Republicans swept into congress halfway through Clinton's first term. I remember the sinking feeling that the promise of Clinton's election was at that point all for naught.

Or at least it would fall short, far short of its potential. With a burgeoning economy and the end of the cold war establishing American pre-eminence Clinton had been given the opportunity to position America as a beacon of hope here at home and a force for good in the world abroad.

Instead we got Kenneth Starr, Whitewater (does ANYBODY know what that was about, even now?) and Monica Lewinsky.

Sigh.

As Democrats take control of congress for the first time since 1994, the challenges facing the US are rather different. Mired in Iraq, impotent in the rest of the world, with an economy that does nothing but widen the divide between haves and have-nots, the Democrats will have to do more than just hound a president they loathe.

Not that they shouldn't do that, they just need to do much more.

And while efforts to provide an actual check on presidential excess, raise the minimum wage, wean the US from its dependence on non-renewable energy sources, reign in pharmaceutical costs, back stemcell research and shore up homeland security are all important tasks, no task is more important, and most importantly no task is more do-able than ethics reform.

Without risk of presidential veto, without needing the assent of obstructionist Republicans (though if they were wise they would help, not hinder), the new Democratic congress can fix much that ails this government, or at least make it easier to do so, if they make real progress against the pay-for-play atmosphere so prevalent in Washington.

And while the effort to reign in lobbyists is all well and good, the best thing congress can do for itself is to severely curtail the use of earmarks.

And while an outright ban would be preferable, an easier and more politically acceptable soultion to this problem exists: disclosure.

Publish (preferably on the internet)

• *The name of the sponsoring congressman
• *The names and memberships of those special interest groups supporting the earmark
• *Analysis of what those special interest groups and their members stand to gain from the earmark
• *List all perks and donations to the sponsoring congressman and any of his favored PACs, charities and relatives by said special interest groups and their members.

Shine the light of day on slimeball behavior and the behavior will either stop, or those who insist on continuing their corrupt ways will be rooted out and then booted out.

So instead of government for special interests, the final result will be a government of the PEOPLE, by the PEOPLE, and FOR the PEOPLE.

And that has a nice ring to it.

A daily read

If you don't already read Dan Froomkin's White House Briefing column regularly all I can say is this.

You should read Dan Froomkin's White House briefing column regularly.

I know, I know, it's not easy. He doesn't have a permanent URL so you have to search the front page at WashingtonPost.com.

But still, it's worth the effort.

Today's column about the fultility of a troop escalation surge is a case in point. Not only does he provide clear-eyed opinion, but links to many others of the same ilk.

Froomkin:

If the vox populi and the cognoscenti agree that throwing more American bodies at the problem will only result in more American deaths, then how is the apparent Bush plan anything short of a betrayal of the troops and an expression of contempt for the will of the people?

And is there any more plausible explanation for Bush's behavior than that he is willing to sacrifice more troops so he won't have to admit -- at least not yet -- that he made a mistake? Is that a good enough reason to ask even one more soldier to die?

And, among others, links to:

Keith Olbermann (text, video):

"Mr. Bush, your judgment about Iraq -- and now about 'sacrifice' -- is at variance with your people's, to the point of delusion.

"Your most respected generals see no value in a 'surge' -- they could not possibly see it in this madness of 'sacrifice.'

"The Iraq Study Group told you it would be a mistake.

"Perhaps dozens more have told you it would be a mistake.

"And you threw their wisdom back, until you finally heard what you wanted to hear, like some child drawing straws and then saying 'best two out of three . . . best three out of five . . . hundredth one counts.'

"Your citizens, the people for whom you work, have told you they do not want this, and moreover, they do not want you to do this.

"Yet once again, sir, you have ignored all of us. . . .

"First we sent Americans to their deaths for your lie, Mr. Bush.

"Now we are sending them to their deaths for your ego."

And Jane Smiley at Huffingtonpost.com, as well as Robert Hodierne for the Military Times.

And many more.

A reason for HuffingtonPost to exist

A year and a half ago, any number of bloggers were, shall we say, a wee bit hostile to the creation of Huffingtonpost.

Arianna and her coterie of celeb dilettantes were going to destroy the populist heroism of the blogosphere. There goes the neighborhood.

Or something like that.

But that was never your CaliBlogger's belief. I welcome the cacophony of voices found on the internets. Even those of the (typically semi-) famous.

But today HuffPo published an article which I posit makes its entire existence, though it were 'til now entirely quisquilious*, yet absolutely worthwhile:

Steve Martin on Hussein's death:

Oh, my Saddam, how I loved your funny little ways. The way you held your teacup; the way you enjoyed those who coaxed a smile from you. I love that you found a way to exist in this mixed up world, how you thought, "why be mean when you can be nice?" Saddam, I will miss the way you would point to someone and then they would be dead, the way your puppy Pluto became a rug.

Yes, it's all been worth it after all.

*I love on-line dictionaries.

General recommends an end to discrimination of gays in the military

In today's New York Times retired general and former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, John M. Shalikashvili, calls for the US military to adopt a policy of non-discrimination based on sexual orientation:

Last year I held a number of meetings with gay soldiers and marines, including some with combat experience in Iraq, and an openly gay senior sailor who was serving effectively as a member of a nuclear submarine crew. These conversations showed me just how much the military has changed, and that gays and lesbians can be accepted by their peers.

This perception is supported by a new Zogby poll of more than 500 service members returning from Afghanistan and Iraq, three quarters of whom said they were comfortable interacting with gay people. And 24 foreign nations, including Israel, Britain and other allies in the fight against terrorism, let gays serve openly, with none reporting morale or recruitment problems.

I now believe that if gay men and lesbians served openly in the United States military, they would not undermine the efficacy of the armed forces. Our military has been stretched thin by our deployments in the Middle East, and we must welcome the service of any American who is willing and able to do the job.

Needless to say, your CaliBlogger believes that the time is long past due to end the ridiculous "don't ask, don't tell" policy initiated under Clinton.

Of course I believe the GLBT community should be entitled to the full panoply of human rights enjoyed by we straights.

Without reservation.

And while general Shalikashvili, perhaps chastened by the Debacle the Clintons made of their abortive attempt to liberalize the military, calls for prudence in the implementation of such changes, I find it heartening to see that the futility of current policy is being recognized where it counts most: within the ranks of the military itself.

I'd like to close this post with a comment I read in response to Justin Gardener's post on the subject at Donklephant.

howard Says:

I am a 74 year old Korean War veteran. Back then in the early ’50s, blacks couldn’t eat at white lunch counters, had separate water fountains, and sat in the back of the bus and other discriminatory practices. But in our barracks, they slept where ever, among the whites…and they fought shoulder to shoulder as trusted buddies. There is nothing to prove that gays in the military could not perform with distinction, if given the chance.

Gay discrimination is based on the theory that all gays are only into sex with you, Mr. Straightman. If that theory were ascribed to male heterosexuals, then there would be no military.

I have found that given the chance, people will strive and excel. Do you realize that gays are already flying our commercial aircraft, are chefs in the restaurants you patronize, they teach your children, and perform untold charitable events, just like you Mr. Straightman.

This is the 21st century, and time to rethink past prejudices.

Long. Past. Time.

Go Bolts!

As you may have noticed, since this is my first post ever on the subject, your CaliBlogger has rather other things on his mind than professional sports.

But, as someone who grew up in San Diego and attended Chargers games when the jersies featured names like Hadl and Alworth, I wanted to take a moment to congratulate the 2006 edition of the team on its spectacular success.

Led by LaDainian Tomlinson's incredible year, the Chargers posted a team best 14-2 record and have secured homefield advantage throughout their quest for the Superbowl.

I know ('cos I was there) that keeping the team has been a controversial and expensive proposition for the people of San Diego, but I hope regardless they enjoy the team's success.

It's been a long road to hoe since the glory days of AirCoryell.

Best of luck in the playoffs.

Go Bolts!